<nettime> "The global economy driven by information technology clearly benefits the United States"

[geert lovink <geert@xs4all.nl>]

(an interesting report about the world in 2015, written for the US
intelligence
community)

     http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A19618-2000Dec17.html

 Monday, December 18, 2000; Page A03

     Global Threats Against U.S. Will Rise, Report Predicts

      By Vernon Loeb
      Washington Post Staff Writer

 The risk of a missile attack against the United States involving
 chemical, biological or nuclear warheads is greater today than during
 most of the Cold War and will continue to grow in the next 15 years,
 according to a new global threat assessment by the National Intelligence
 Council.

 The report, scheduled for release today, also concludes that terrorist
 attacks against the United States through 2015 "will become increasingly
 sophisticated and designed to achieve mass casualties. We expect the
 trend toward greater lethality . . . to continue."

 Nevertheless, the United States will remain "unparalleled" in its
 economic, technological, military and diplomatic influence by 2015, the
 report states, remaining in "the vanguard of the technological revolution
 from information to biotechnology and beyond."

 The 68-page document, "Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue about the Future
 with Nongovernmental Experts," represents an attempt by the U.S.
 intelligence community to look beyond its secret sources and involve
 academia and the private sector in forecasting world trends over the next
 decade and a half.

 The 15-member NIC is based at CIA headquarters under Director of Central
 Intelligence George J. Tenet and focuses on broad strategic assessments.

 "This is the most we have done with outside engagement," NIC Chairman
 John Gannon said in an interview. "When you get into issues like natural
 resources, demographics, science and technology, we really had to depend
 upon a lot of expertise out there."

 Gannon said the combined thinking of outside experts and U.S.
 intelligence has left him generally optimistic about the next 15 years,
 despite what the report identifies as key uncertainties -- including
 China, Russia, the Middle East, Japan and India.

 "The United States is going to be in a very strong position in 2015,"
 Gannon said. "The global economy driven by information technology clearly
 benefits the United States. The major challenge is how you manage the
 downside of globalization -- how do we deal with the countries that
 feel they're being left behind, particularly in regions of the world like
 the Middle East."

 A robust global economy coupled with greater international cooperation
 could reduce armed conflict and help alleviate the effects of population
 growth, poverty and water shortages by 2015, the study says.

 But in a section that presents alternative scenarios, the study says it
 is also possible that globalization could divide the world into haves and
 have-nots, fueling "frustrated expectations, inequities, and heightened
 communal tensions" while triggering the spread of organized crime and
 weapons of mass destruction.

 "The networked global economy will be driven by rapid and largely
 unrestricted flows of information, ideas, cultural values, capital, goods
 and services, and people," the report concludes. "In contrast to the
 Industrial Revolution, the process of globalization is more compressed.
 Its evolution will be rocky, marked by chronic financial volatility and a
 widening economic divide."

 Developed in the past 15 months at a series of conferences held by
 universities, corporations and think tanks, the report is most
 provocative in its inclusion of eight "significant discontinuities" that
 the experts considered unlikely, but possible. Among them:

 A "de facto geo-strategic alliance" between China, Russia and India to
 counterbalance U.S. influence.

 A collapse in the U.S.-European alliance as a result of trade disputes,
 political differences and conflict over how to handle global security
 issues.

 Formation of an international terrorist coalition with "diverse
 anti-Western objectives" and access to chemical, biological and even
 nuclear weapons.

 Serious upheaval in the Middle East, caused by deteriorating standards of
 living in major Arab nations and a failure by Israel and the Palestinians
 to reach a peace accord.

 Far more likely is a "cold peace" between Israel and a new Palestinian
 state, said the experts, who also predict that Japan's economic influence
 will wane and that Russia will struggle on virtually all fronts as it
 drifts toward authoritarianism.

 In stark demographic terms, the report paints what is in many ways a
 distressing portrait of planet earth in 2015, with the world's population
 having surged from 6.1 billion people today to 7.2 billion. Ninety-five
 percent of the growth will be in developing nations, with nearly all of
 that occurring in urban areas, the report says. The population of
 mega-cities larger than 10 million will double to 400 million.

 "Divergent demographic trends, the globalization of labor markets, and
 political instability and conflict will fuel a dramatic increase in the
 global movement of people through 2015," the report says.

 "Legal and illegal migrants now account for more than 15 percent of the
 population in more than 50 countries. These numbers will grow
 substantially and will increase social and political tension and perhaps
 alter national identities even as they contribute to demographic and
 economic dynamism."

 Food supplies will be adequate to feed the world's population, though
 famine will persist because of politics, war and poor distribution
 systems, the report says. Energy demands will increase by 50 percent, but
 supplies will be sufficient, with 80 percent of the world's oil and 95
 percent of its natural gas still in the ground untapped.

 Water supplies will be far more problematic, with 3 billion people living
 in "water-stressed" countries, mostly in Africa, the Middle East, South
 Asia and northern China. Because more than 30 of the world's 191 nations
 receive more than a third of their water from outside their borders,
 water shortages could trigger conflict among states, the report says.

 The report is perhaps most dire in its predictions about the spread of
 terrorism aimed at U.S. interests and the proliferation of weapons of
 mass destruction among terrorists and adversary states.

 The increased threat of a missile attack involving chemical, biological
 or even nuclear weapons is more likely to come from short- and
 medium-range missiles than intercontinental ballistic missiles. "The goal
 of the adversary would be to move the weapon within striking distance by
 using short- and medium-range missiles deployed on surface ships or
 covert missions using military special operations forces or state
 intelligence services," the report says.

 The report also predicts that chemical and biological threats to the
 United States will increase. "Some terrorists or insurgents will attempt
 to use such weapons against U.S. interests -- against the United
 States itself, its forces or facilities overseas, or its allies."

 In assessing the potential for future conflict, the report focuses on
 China as a growing global power in military and economic terms.

 "Some projections indicate that Chinese power will rise because of the
 growth of its economic and military capabilities," the report says.
 "Other projections indicate that the array of political, social, and
 economic pressures will increasingly challenge the stability and
 legitimacy of the regime. Most assessments today argue that China will
 seek to avoid conflict in the region to promote stable economic growth
 and to ensure internal stability."

 Russia's future is much bleaker. "Besides a crumbling infrastructure,
 years of environmental neglect are taking a toll on the population, a
 toll made worse by such societal costs of transition as alcoholism,
 cardiac diseases, drugs, and a worsening health delivery system," the
 report says.

 "In macro economic terms Russia's [gross domestic product] probably has
 bottomed out. Russia, nevertheless, is still likely to fall short in its
 efforts to become fully integrated into the global financial and trading
 system by 2015," the report continues. "Even under a best case scenario
 of 5 percent annual economic growth, Russia would attain an economy less
 than one-fifth the size of that of the United States."



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