<nettime> mondo risiko: the geopolitics of trump

[Alex Foti <alex.foti@gmail.com>]

   the thaw with putin and the freeze with eu and nato have occurred as
   expected - aleppo is pounded by russian bombs as a consequence of trump
   - fillon one of the droite runners in the french primary argues for
   rapprochement with russia - germany has always been softer with putin,
   and italy too. it's not great to be a neighboring country of putin's,
   these days.. of course if marine le pen wins the presidency (sadly, it
   depends on the droite stopping her), trump and putin would have an ally
   in the heart of europe and who knows what happens next: the breakup of
   both euro and EU are eminently possible and it wouldn't certainly end
   there. antifascists of europe let's be prepared.

   the tension with china is already palpable (i hadn't thought that one
   through) - over climate change as a hoax and tariffs on iphones - and
   especially the great feeling between nationalistic abe and
   supernationalist trump make for the fact that the already existing
   rivalry between China and the US over the South China Sea and world
   power in general could reach dangerous levels. In the new situation,
   Europe would do well to engage China more, I hate to admit it, but
   Arrighi was right after all, it's the only rational global actor left
   and has an interest in peace for the sake of world trade, as Keith
   argued.

   the national security establishment of trump's nazifashionist regime is
   still in the making, although a few names are emerging, like pompeo
   (hope he meets his pharsalus) and possibly bolton. Both are rabidly
   opposed to Iran and would renege on obama's ouvertures. This clearly
   also complicates Iraq and the aftermath of the ongoing reconquest of
   isis territory in the country (Mosul), as well as Raqqa. Erdogan is
   clearly emboldened by the election of a strongman like him to the
   uberwhite house. An axis of evil seems to be emerging: Putin, Trump,
   Erdogan. the assad-butcher-of-Syria question is likely to find
   accommodation satisfactory for all parties. Last year bolton argued in
   favor an independent kurdistan (along the partition of iraq and syria),
   but that was before putin's military intervention.

   finally a note on the new macroeconomic framework: the switch overnight
   from negative to positive interest rates, which has already propelled
   the dollar to sky-high values and depreciated the yuan, to the point
   that chinese monetary authorities are selling dollars by the
   trainloads. for the eurozone, this could be deadly, especially if
   schaueble remains in charge of the economic affairs of the union.
   higher interest rates of course mean costlier mortages, consumer and
   business credit. a reawakening of the Great Recession looks possible,
   lacking countervailing fiscal policy (in the US this could happen
   through infrastructure spending, but in the EU?), worsening
   unemployment and taking hate towards immigrants and refugees to new
   levels (there are worrisome sign everywhere, and especially in Italy
   these days of natives trying to blockade or burn the buildings supposed
   to host migrants). A shrinking economy makes the lure of the European
   extreme right even more dangerously attractive.

   ciao for now

   lx

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