| Stefan Heidenreich on Mon, 13 Feb 2023 08:45:51 +0100 (CET) |
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| Re: <nettime> Stormy weather? |
Hi Brian,thank you so much for this very reasonable request for comments. I've had already written off nettime (as "NATO-shit-list" .. as one participant used to frame it).
Your bleak view looks very likely, but it's not the only possible outcome. So, against all odds, let me sketch a vaguely 'positive' possibility.
- the fact that most of the world does not align with the "West" makes it possible to a) avoid the NeoCon-project of a war against China (bcs it is already lost) and to b) overcome the phase of finance colonization that exploited most the world for the last 60 years.
- the defeat of NATO could lead to a "decolonization" of Western Euroipe (not that this by itself leads to positive results. Repressive "liberal" fascism remains as likely an outcome as some sort of independence.)
- inflation could remain a one-time price shock (after having cut living standards by 15%), switching back to debt deflation. (bad enough)
- the US could see a replacement of the failed NeoCons by ... I don't know what ... either Isolationists for the better ... or worse the MAGA-Bannon-Trump-Armageddon fraction.
- a post-hegemonial multi-polar world could finally create the conditions to get together and to tackle the real problems like climate change.
- it increasingly looks as if AI is at the top of its current hype cycle.What to do: align with the South to overcome Western oligarchy. Re-create democratic conditions in those countries that like to call themselves "democratic".
However, my impression is that there are very many people whose doubts about neocon nato-ism keep growing.
Stefan Am 12.02.23 um 20:50 schrieb Brian Holmes:
I wonder how nettimers from different perspectives around the world see the current, remarkably tense international situation? Where do you think all the anxieties of war, economic competition, natural disaster and climate change are going to lead in the near future? How do you think one should intervene?-- There's a war on in Europe, which is a proxy war that pits NATO against Russia, via the fighting force of Ukraine. Definitely check out the list of equipment which the US alone has sent: https://newleftreview.org/sidecar/posts/sleepwalking-elites <https://newleftreview.org/sidecar/posts/sleepwalking-elites> (list begins in paragraph 3)-- There's likely to be a second refugee crisis in the EU due to the earthquake in Turkey and Syria as well (I mean, added to the exodus from Ukraine).-- There are rapidly rising tensions between the US and China, with this week's US airspace-defence operations visibly influenced by domestic get-tough politics, and a lot of uncertainty as to whether China will try to use a nationalist, rally-around-the-flag effect to quash the social protest and state-delegitimation brought by the zero-covid fiasco. As part of all this, an industrial re-orientation is being attempted from the US side (CHIPS act, electric-car subsidies for nationally made products). I am not clear if the EU, and especially Germany, participates in this reorientation, or not.-- Lower-income countries dependent on international finance have had to absorb the interest-rate consequences of pandemic inflation in the rich countries, leading to stalled development and left-right conflicts.-- Fires, droughts and floods have made climate change into an openly admitted crisis, an economic factor in its own right, and a crucial element in strategic economic military planning.-- And in parallel to all that, another technology shift is coming through the application of AI to existing industrial and communications technologies.I think those are undeniable factors whose spillovers must affect most people somehow, wherever you live, so I'm totally curious what you make of this conjuncture.From my viewpoint, I think that the neoliberal model of society has now irretrievably broken down, leaving vast psycho-social disarray and increasing conflict as state and corporate actors begin trying new strategies. Currently there is a lot of happy talk about "solving the climate crisis" with solar panels and electric cars, and I'm glad about it too, but I think this masks the enormity of the changes ahead. On the one hand, the reason of state calls simultaneously for protective reterritorialization (nationalism, militarized borders, renegotiated alliances) and, in a diametrically opposite way, for intensified international regulatory and planning regimes, as well as a certain coordination of production to achieve energy transitions. On the other hand, populations at all class levels seem to sense that these changes will again be highly disruptive (I mean, as they were in the 80s-90s when neoliberalism came in) - so you have an incredible repositioning going on at the molecular level, not only politically but above all, psychologically. It's noteworthy that in the US, almost none of the sprawling social-welfare package that was originally intended to accompany the Green Capitalism legislation made it through, and more broadly, I don't think capitalist societies have overcome their basic social contradictions. Instead they are being exacerbated, which makes it much, much harder to steer the big ships of state...It all adds up to stormy weather ahead, and I was just interrupted by a friend telling me that NORAD had closed the airspace over Lake Michigan. That's right out my window! They just opened it again, no explanation yet, but it seems like a good place to end.curious what you think, Brian # distributed via <nettime>: no commercial use without permission # <nettime> is a moderated mailing list for net criticism, # collaborative text filtering and cultural politics of the nets # more info: http://mx.kein.org/mailman/listinfo/nettime-l # archive: http://www.nettime.org contact: nettime@kein.org # @nettime_bot tweets mail w/ sender unless #ANON is in Subject:
# distributed via <nettime>: no commercial use without permission # <nettime> is a moderated mailing list for net criticism, # collaborative text filtering and cultural politics of the nets # more info: http://mx.kein.org/mailman/listinfo/nettime-l # archive: http://www.nettime.org contact: nettime@kein.org # @nettime_bot tweets mail w/ sender unless #ANON is in Subject: